Swanepoel
Trends Report 2012

So we agree, change is happening and fast. Staying the same or even changing slowly is not an option. You have to stay on top of the latest strategies, innovations and business models or you will see your business spiral down.

For decades Stefan Swanepoel has been researching and dissecting change in our industry and after 20 books and reports, 700+ talks and thousands of articles he is widely regarded as the leading authority on our beloved industry.

His Swanepoel TRENDS Report (2006, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11 and now 2012) annually answers as many of these key issues.

Get the inside track on the U.S. residential real estate brokerage industry, or be left standing outside in the cold unknown. Below is a snapshot of the key trends shaping out industry detailed inside the 2012 Swanepoel Trends Report.

Privacy is becoming a bigger and bigger issue … again. Many want to protect their privacy while others want transparency.

We basically already have eyes and ears everywhere, which means privacy is no longer a widely held reality. So how will this growing access to data, whether personal, through voluntary identification or in the aggregate, reshape human life … because change it will.

You have never experienced anything happen so fast in your entire life!!

• 1.4 Billion mobile phones sold during the last 12 months
• 12 Billion apps download from the Web
• 8 Trillion text message sent during 2011

What does that mean?

• 70% of the world now has a mobile phone
• Children are more likely to own a phone (83%) compared to a book (72%)
• More people have a mobile phone (5.3 Billion) than have a tooth brush (4.2 Billion)

Gross, funny or sad — it is an awaking call.

So how do Realtors better use mobile technology, apps and iPad?

We are approaching the world’s saturation point for a product. That means for the first time, in the not too distant future, for all practical calculations every living person on the planet will be connected to each other.

They way you live, communicate, interact and transact will completely change.

Industries standing in line include: Banking, entertainment, Health Careand Real Estate.

Mergers and sales have been cycling for years. New businesses pop and the cycle repeats itself. However, with growing multiple brand ownership, bankruptcies and the disappearance of mid size Mom and Pop companies, consolidating power is being funneled into fewer and fewer hands. Here are a few examples:

Real estate remains a local transaction but it is increasingly becoming a global business. The giants that will dominate this vertical for decades to come are now being formed.

• It started in 1996 when for the first time, a company, in this case when HFS, purchased ERA after it had acquired Century 21 barely a year earlier. As a result it became the first company to own multiple national real estate brands.
• This expanded when HFS (later Cendant) also purchased Coldwell Banker..
• They formed NRT and created a vehicle that acquired more great real estate companies than ever before in the history of our industry.
• Brookfield, already the owner of Royal LePage, acquired GMAC in the mid 2000s. They followed this up with the acquisition of RealLiving.
• Cendant subsequently became Realogy and acquired the license to roll out two more national brands; Sothebys and Better Homes and Gardens.
• The 2008 housing crash sent brokerage companies into a tail spin and consolidation accelerated on local levels across the country.
• RealTrends, the leader in M&A work in our industry, states that more brokerages are for sale than at any time in history.
• Rumors are on the uptick again that Prudential may be changing hands in the not too distant future.

Tablets are rapidly becoming the primary way to read everything and the emergence of “everyware,” dynamic grids, adaptive architecture, augmented reality, location based services, mobile tagging, intelligent sensors and so on already has a firm grip on consumers.

Next up is redefining businesses, professions and services. Home buying is such a sexy, attractive lure that it will be at the top of the list. So watch out real estate agents, this is going to be more fun than you had with fax machines and pagers.

This century old beast has served us well as members, the industry as a whole and indirectly the consumer. However, this costly three-tier structure is burdened with duplication, antiquated governance and saddled with tired leadership. It no longer serves agents as well as it did before.

For most associations, including those in our beloved real estate industry, time has stood still. Despite monumental shifts on every conceivable level in society and business over the last two decades most associations remain the same.

They operate the same. They govern the same way. They service their members the same. They talk the same talk, debate the same issues and they shy away from making meaningful, significant, real change — the same as always.

They sit on hoards of cash reserves while members are going out of business and desperately need help.

“The walking dead” or “The new super hero?”

As we enter a new era of knowledge and refine availability and transparency of data we reach a major cross road: Should we cremate and bury this old, industry manipulating, self-serving, Realtor® protecting, old boys toy — or should we re-skin, re-tool and rebuild this unique, invaluable, cooperative system into a national data platform that serves the home buying and selling consumer as never before.

This is one of the most exciting and dynamic facets of our industry today and you must constantly stay on top it.

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